Canberra trainer Matt Dale says Hermosa Beach saves her best runs her home track.
That's why he believes the seven-year-old mare can defy the odds and win the $130,000 National Sprint (1400 metres) at Thoroughbred Park on Sunday.
Hermosa Beach has six wins from 29 starts and is out to better her fourth place finish in the same race on Black Opal Stakes day 12 months ago.
Dale believes third-up she'll surprise many, including the bookies, who have her at $16.
"Hermosa has always reserved a lot of her best runs for her home track and third-up, up to the 1400m, albeit quite a strong field, it wouldn't surprise me if she put in an improved performance," Dale said.